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Prior to the release of bitcoin there were a number of digital cash technologies starting with the issuer based ecash protocols of David Chaum and Stefan Brands.[3][4][5] Adam Back developed hashcash, a proof-of-work scheme for spam control. The first proposals for distributed digital scarcity based cryptocurrencies were Wei Dai's b-money[6] and Nick Szabo's bit gold.[7][8] Hal Finney developed reusable proof of work (RPOW) using hashcash as its proof of work algorithm.[9]
On 6 August 2013, Federal Judge Amos Mazzant of the Eastern District of Texas of the Fifth Circuit ruled that bitcoins are "a currency or a form of money" (specifically securities as defined by Federal Securities Laws), and as such were subject to the court's jurisdiction,[75][76] and Germany's Finance Ministry subsumed bitcoins under the term "unit of account"—a financial instrument—though not as e-money or a functional currency, a classification nonetheless having legal and tax implications.[77]
By 2017, Bitcoin dominance had plummeted from 95% to as low as 40% as a direct result of the usability problems. Fortunately, a large portion of the Bitcoin community, including developers, investors, users, and businesses, still believed in the original vision of Bitcoin -- a low fee, peer to peer electronic cash system that could be used by all the people of the world.

Stefan Thomas, a Swiss coder and active community member, graphed the time stamps for each of Nakamoto's 500-plus bitcoin forum posts; the resulting chart showed a steep decline to almost no posts between the hours of 5 a.m. and 11 a.m. Greenwich Mean Time. Because this pattern held true even on Saturdays and Sundays, it suggested that Nakamoto was asleep at this time, and the hours of 5 a.m. to 11 a.m. GMT are midnight to 6 a.m. Eastern Standard Time (North American Eastern Standard Time). Other clues suggested that Nakamoto was British: A newspaper headline he had encoded in the genesis block came from the UK-published newspaper The Times, and both his forum posts and his comments in the bitcoin source code used British English spellings, such as "optimise" and "colour".[12]
Our second assumption is that the supply of bitcoin will approach 21 million as specified in the current protocol.  To give some context, the current supply of bitcoin is around 17 million, the rate at which bitcoin is released decreases by half roughly every four years, and the supply should get past 19 million in the year 2022.  The key part of this assumption is that the protocol will not be changed.  Note that changing the protocol would require the concurrence of a majority of the computing power engaged in bitcoin mining. (Related: How Does Bitcoin Mining Work?)
Well I haven't forgotten or forgiven you Mr Major; for the ERM debacle. I suffered 2 years of unemployment because of that nonsence. I was 50 at the time; in those 2 years my savings, insurance and pension plans were all decimated. And because of my age I never ever got back to my previous earning or job status. I think your judgement is flawed. I voted to improve the future quality of life for my grandchildren, confident that the UK, in rejoining the whole world, is fully capable of giving them the benefits that (according to the Baby Boomer haters); we enjoyed, prior to our memebership of the ECM EEC EU etc!!
As bitcoin has matured as a cryptocurrency there has been more companies warming to the idea of using various bitcoin exchange facilities to gain exposure to the volatile bitcoin price while a few websites such as reddit WordPress and overstock have begun accepting bitcoins, most major retailers have yet to take the plunge into the cryptoverse whils other pioneers have decided to create their own bitcoin forks and have listed new projects on other cryptocurrency exchanges.
Several news outlets have asserted that the popularity of bitcoins hinges on the ability to use them to purchase illegal goods.[128][224] Nobel-prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz says that bitcoin's anonymity encourages money laundering and other crimes, "If you open up a hole like bitcoin, then all the nefarious activity will go through that hole, and no government can allow that." He's also said that if "you regulate it so you couldn’t engage in money laundering and all these other [crimes], there will be no demand for Bitcoin. By regulating the abuses, you are going to regulate it out of existence. It exists because of the abuses."[225][226]

Exchange hacks. As stated above, an exchange hack has nothing to do with the integrity of the Bitcoin system… but the market freaks out regardless. This trend seems to minimize as users see that cryptos recover from exchange hacks. As exchanges evolve and become more secure, this threat becomes less of an issue. Additionally, outside investments funneling into exchanges are providing the capital for them to grow stronger.
Computing power is often bundled together or "pooled" to reduce variance in miner income. Individual mining rigs often have to wait for long periods to confirm a block of transactions and receive payment. In a pool, all participating miners get paid every time a participating server solves a block. This payment depends on the amount of work an individual miner contributed to help find that block.[82] 

“These companies are using extraordinary amounts of electricity – typically thousands of times more electricity than an average residential customer would use,” a spokesperson for the New York State Department of Public Service told Wired. “The sheer amount of electricity being used is leading to higher costs for customers in small communities because of a limited supply of low-cost hydropower.”
Computing power is often bundled together or "pooled" to reduce variance in miner income. Individual mining rigs often have to wait for long periods to confirm a block of transactions and receive payment. In a pool, all participating miners get paid every time a participating server solves a block. This payment depends on the amount of work an individual miner contributed to help find that block.[82]
Satoshi's anonymity often raises unjustified concerns because of a misunderstanding of Bitcoin's open-source nature. Everyone has access to all of the source code all of the time and any developer can review or modify the software code. As such, the identity of Bitcoin's inventor is probably as relevant today as the identity of the person who invented paper.
Bitcoin is a digital asset designed to work in peer-to-peer transactions as a currency.[5][128] Bitcoins have three qualities useful in a currency, according to The Economist in January 2015: they are "hard to earn, limited in supply and easy to verify".[129] However, as of 2015 bitcoin functions more as a payment processor than as a currency.[130][30]

This is a rather simple long term model.  And perhaps the biggest question it hinges on is how much adoption will bitcoin achieve?  Coming up with a value for the current price of bitcoin would involve pricing in the risk of low adoption or failure of bitcoin as a currency, which could include being displaced by one or more other digital currencies.  Models often consider the velocity of money, frequently arguing that since bitcoin can support transfers that take less than an hour, the velocity of money in the future bitcoin ecosystem will be higher than the current average velocity of money.  Another view on this though would be that velocity of money is not restricted by today's payment rails in any significant way and that its main determinant is the need or willingness of people to transact.  Therefore, the projected velocity of money could be treated as roughly equal to its current value.


Speculation drives numbers. Many Bitcoin users are holding onto their bitcoins in hopes of selling them off for an enormous profit one day. With news articles portraying Bitcoin millionaires as lucky kids who got in early, you can’t really blame them. For example, if you had spent your $5 latte money on 2,000 bitcoins one morning in 2010, they would be worth about $5.4 million today. Makes you really wish you’d managed your Starbucks budget better, doesn’t it?
Jump up ^ Paul Vigna (18 February 2014). "BitBeat: Mt. Gox's Pyrrhic Victory". Money Beat. The Wall Street Journal. Archived from the original on 6 October 2014. Retrieved 30 September 2014. 'Ode to Satoshi' is a bluegrass-style song with an old-timey feel that mixes references to Satoshi Nakamoto and blockchains (and, ahem, 'the fall of old Mt. Gox') with mandolin-picking and harmonicas.
If this is your first time reading a Bitcoin (BTC-USD)(COIN)(OTCQX:GBTC) Value Indicator report, you may want to refer to the original article, where I explain the three strongest corollaries with Bitcoin's market cap. You also may want to read the first Bitcoin Value Indicator report, published in July of this year, where I explain further how I turned those metrics into a consolidated system.
As mathematician George Box said, "All models are wrong, some are useful."  We have set out to construct a framework for pricing bitcoin but it is important to understand the variables.  From our thinking, it seems possible that bitcoin could eventually increase in price by orders of magnitude, but it all depends on bitcoin's level of adoption.  The most important question is "Will people use bitcoin?"
Regulatory Risk: Bitcoins are a rival to government currency and may be used for black market transactions, money laundering, illegal activities or tax evasion. As a result, governments may seek to regulate, restrict or ban the use and sale of bitcoins, and some already have. Others are coming up with various rules. For example, in 2015, the New York State Department of Financial Services finalized regulations that would require companies dealing with the buy, sell, transfer or storage of bitcoins to record the identity of customers, have a compliance officer and maintain capital reserves. The transactions worth $10,000 or more will have to be recorded and reported. 
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