Various journalists,[204][211] economists,[212][213] and the central bank of Estonia[214] have voiced concerns that bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme. In 2013, Eric Posner, a law professor at the University of Chicago, stated that "a real Ponzi scheme takes fraud; bitcoin, by contrast, seems more like a collective delusion."[215] A 2014 report by the World Bank concluded that bitcoin was not a deliberate Ponzi scheme.[216]:7 The Swiss Federal Council[217]:21 examined the concerns that bitcoin might be a pyramid scheme; it concluded that, "Since in the case of bitcoin the typical promises of profits are lacking, it cannot be assumed that bitcoin is a pyramid scheme." In July 2017, billionaire Howard Marks referred to bitcoin as a pyramid scheme.[218]
Regulatory Risk: Bitcoins are a rival to government currency and may be used for black market transactions, money laundering, illegal activities or tax evasion. As a result, governments may seek to regulate, restrict or ban the use and sale of bitcoins, and some already have. Others are coming up with various rules. For example, in 2015, the New York State Department of Financial Services finalized regulations that would require companies dealing with the buy, sell, transfer or storage of bitcoins to record the identity of customers, have a compliance officer and maintain capital reserves. The transactions worth $10,000 or more will have to be recorded and reported.
Bitcoin is a digital currency that enables users to be their own banks, store their assets securely thanks to advanced encryption and send money without any intermediaries to anyone anywhere in the World. Bitcoin is the oldest cryptocurrency with a very good market price. It has made many investors, especially the earliest ones, incredibly rich bringing even 1000x of returns. However, because of this it has become a very speculative asset. Many people are researching Bitcoin only for the sake of profits and not to use it as a fast peer-to-peer payment method
Bitcoin has become more widely traded as of 2017, and both short term traders and long-term investors are looking to participate in this exciting market. The price of bitcoin fluctuates on a daily basis, and can see some significant price volatility. Prices can be affected by numerous influences. Some of the possible drivers of price include: further acceptance, more exchanges opening, regulations, weakening paper currency values, inflation and more.
“These companies are using extraordinary amounts of electricity – typically thousands of times more electricity than an average residential customer would use,” a spokesperson for the New York State Department of Public Service told Wired. “The sheer amount of electricity being used is leading to higher costs for customers in small communities because of a limited supply of low-cost hydropower.”
Bitcoin prices were negatively affected by several hacks or thefts from cryptocurrency exchanges, including thefts from Coincheck in January 2018, Coinrail and Bithumb in June, and Bancor in July. For the first six months of 2018, $761 million worth of cryptocurrencies was reported stolen from exchanges.[60] Bitcoin's price was affected even though other cryptocurrencies were stolen at Coinrail and Bancor, as investors worried about the security of cryptocurrency exchanges.[61][62][63]
Our second assumption is that the supply of bitcoin will approach 21 million as specified in the current protocol.  To give some context, the current supply of bitcoin is around 17 million, the rate at which bitcoin is released decreases by half roughly every four years, and the supply should get past 19 million in the year 2022.  The key part of this assumption is that the protocol will not be changed.  Note that changing the protocol would require the concurrence of a majority of the computing power engaged in bitcoin mining. (Related: How Does Bitcoin Mining Work?)
Transactions are verified by network nodes through cryptography and recorded in a public distributed ledger called a blockchain. Bitcoin was invented by an unknown person or group of people using the name Satoshi Nakamoto[9] and released as open-source software in 2009.[10] Bitcoins are created as a reward for a process known as mining. They can be exchanged for other currencies,[11] products, and services. Research produced by the University of Cambridge estimates that in 2017, there were 2.9 to 5.8 million unique users using a cryptocurrency wallet, most of them using bitcoin.[12]

M3 (which includes all the other buckets) minus M1 is worth about 45 trillion US dollars.  We will include this as a store of value that is comparable to bitcoin.  To this, we will also add an estimate for the worldwide value of gold held as a store of value.  While some may use jewelry as a store of value, for our model we will only consider gold bullion.  The US Geological Survey estimated that at the end of 1999, there were about 122,000 metric tons of available above-ground gold.  Of this, 48%, or 58,560 metric tons, was in the form of private and official bullion stocks.  At an estimated current price of $1200 per troy ounce, that amount of gold is today worth upwards of 2.1 trillion US dollars.  Since there has recently been a deficit in the supply of silver and governments have been selling significant amounts of their silver bullion, we reason that most silver is being used in industry and not as a store of value, and will not include silver in our model.  Neither will we treat other precious metals or gemstones.  In aggregate, our estimate for the global value of stores of value comparable to bitcoin, including savings accounts, small and large time deposits, money market funds, and gold bullion, come to 47.1 trillion US dollars.
The Bank for International Settlements summarized several criticisms of bitcoin in Chapter V of their 2018 annual report. The criticisms include the lack of stability in bitcoin's price, the high energy consumption, high and variable transactions costs, the poor security and fraud at cryptocurrency exchanges, vulnerability to debasement (from forking), and the influence of miners.[187][188][189]
Recall that unique addresses are a proxy for the number of users, because they indicate how many non-zero Bitcoin addresses are in use. This metric has its strengths and weaknesses, which I wrote about here. Also, I have reviewed several other pricing methods which attempt to do the same thing using Metcalfe's Law. You can find those here and here.
Regulatory Risk: Bitcoins are a rival to government currency and may be used for black market transactions, money laundering, illegal activities or tax evasion. As a result, governments may seek to regulate, restrict or ban the use and sale of bitcoins, and some already have. Others are coming up with various rules. For example, in 2015, the New York State Department of Financial Services finalized regulations that would require companies dealing with the buy, sell, transfer or storage of bitcoins to record the identity of customers, have a compliance officer and maintain capital reserves. The transactions worth $10,000 or more will have to be recorded and reported.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been identified as economic bubbles by at least eight Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences laureates, including Robert Shiller,[191] Joseph Stiglitz,[192] and Richard Thaler.[193][13] Noted Keyensian economist Paul Krugman wrote in his New York Times column criticizing bitcoin, calling it a bubble and a fraud;[194] and professor Nouriel Roubini of New York University called bitcoin the "mother of all bubbles."[195] Central bankers, including former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan,[196] investors such as Warren Buffett,[197][198] and George Soros[199] have stated similar views, as have business executives such as Jamie Dimon and Jack Ma.[200]

Venture capitalists, such as Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, which invested US$3 million in BitPay, do not purchase bitcoins themselves, but instead fund bitcoin infrastructure that provides payment systems to merchants, exchanges, wallet services, etc.[150] In 2012, an incubator for bitcoin-focused start-ups was founded by Adam Draper, with financing help from his father, venture capitalist Tim Draper, one of the largest bitcoin holders after winning an auction of 30,000 bitcoins,[151] at the time called "mystery buyer".[152] The company's goal is to fund 100 bitcoin businesses within 2–3 years with $10,000 to $20,000 for a 6% stake.[151] Investors also invest in bitcoin mining.[153] According to a 2015 study by Paolo Tasca, bitcoin startups raised almost $1 billion in three years (Q1 2012 – Q1 2015).[154]
In January 2012, bitcoin was featured as the main subject within a fictionalized trial on the CBS legal drama The Good Wife in the third-season episode "Bitcoin for Dummies". The host of CNBC's Mad Money, Jim Cramer, played himself in a courtroom scene where he testifies that he doesn't consider bitcoin a true currency, saying "There's no central bank to regulate it; it's digital and functions completely peer to peer".[49]
Bitcoin is pseudonymous, meaning that funds are not tied to real-world entities but rather bitcoin addresses. Owners of bitcoin addresses are not explicitly identified, but all transactions on the blockchain are public. In addition, transactions can be linked to individuals and companies through "idioms of use" (e.g., transactions that spend coins from multiple inputs indicate that the inputs may have a common owner) and corroborating public transaction data with known information on owners of certain addresses.[111] Additionally, bitcoin exchanges, where bitcoins are traded for traditional currencies, may be required by law to collect personal information.[112]
It's impossible to say how much bitcoin has increased in price single its earliest incarnation, because its value back then was in the fractions of cents. A conservative estimate, based on bitcoin's current price being around $6,300 per coin, and its early price being less than $0.01, would see bitcoin's value increasing more than 1 million fold in the last decade.
“So if you look at a $100 billion market cap today, now last week it might have been more like 200, so it’s actually a buying opportunity, we think that there’s a potential appreciation of 30 to 40 times because you look at the gold market today, it’s a $7 trillion market. And so a lot of people are starting to se that, they recognize the store of value properties.”
Though each bitcoin transaction is recorded in a public log, names of buyers and sellers are never revealed – only their wallet IDs. While that keeps bitcoin users’ transactions private, it also lets them buy or sell anything without easily tracing it back to them. That’s why it has become the currency of choice for people online buying drugs or other illicit activities.
By 2017, Bitcoin dominance had plummeted from 95% to as low as 40% as a direct result of the usability problems. Fortunately, a large portion of the Bitcoin community, including developers, investors, users, and businesses, still believed in the original vision of Bitcoin -- a low fee, peer to peer electronic cash system that could be used by all the people of the world.
In October 2013, the FBI seized roughly 26,000 BTC from website Silk Road during the arrest of alleged owner Ross William Ulbricht.[78][79][80] Two companies, Robocoin and Bitcoiniacs launched the world's first bitcoin ATM on 29 October 2013 in Vancouver, BC, Canada, allowing clients to sell or purchase bitcoin currency at a downtown coffee shop.[81][82][83] Chinese internet giant Baidu had allowed clients of website security services to pay with bitcoins.[84]
Bitcoin offers an efficient means of transferring money over the internet and is controlled by a decentralized network with a transparent set of rules, thus presenting an alternative to central bank controlled fiat money.  There has been a lot of talk about how to price bitcoin and we set out here to explore what bitcoin's price might look like in the event it achieves some level of widespread adoption.
Yesterday, we saw a major downside move below the $6,350 support in bitcoin price against the US Dollar. The BTC/USD pair declined heavily and broke the $6,240 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average. It traded as low as $6,202 and later started a short term correction. The price moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent drop from the $6,433 high to $6,202 low.
The bitcoin blockchain is a public ledger that records bitcoin transactions.[64] It is implemented as a chain of blocks, each block containing a hash of the previous block up to the genesis block[a] of the chain. A network of communicating nodes running bitcoin software maintains the blockchain.[30]:215–219 Transactions of the form payer X sends Y bitcoins to payee Z are broadcast to this network using readily available software applications.

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Bitcoin is an increasingly popular cryptocurrency that utilizes blockchain technology to facilitate transactions. Basically, a user obtains a Bitcoin wallet that can be used for storing bitcoins and both sending and receiving of payments. The blockchain technology used by Bitcoin is really just a shared public ledger that is used by the entire public network. The technology used is secured through cryptography, a branch of mathematics that provides a highly secure means of facilitating and recording transactions on the network.
Because of bitcoin's decentralized nature and its trading on online exchanges located in many countries, regulation of bitcoin has been difficult. However, the use of bitcoin can be criminalized, and shutting down exchanges and the peer-to-peer economy in a given country would constitute a de facto ban.[164] The legal status of bitcoin varies substantially from country to country and is still undefined or changing in many of them. Regulations and bans that apply to bitcoin probably extend to similar cryptocurrency systems.[165]

Mining is a record-keeping service done through the use of computer processing power.[e] Miners keep the blockchain consistent, complete, and unalterable by repeatedly grouping newly broadcast transactions into a block, which is then broadcast to the network and verified by recipient nodes.[64] Each block contains a SHA-256 cryptographic hash of the previous block,[64] thus linking it to the previous block and giving the blockchain its name.[3]:ch. 7[64]
On 6 August 2010, a major vulnerability in the bitcoin protocol was spotted. Transactions weren't properly verified before they were included in the transaction log or blockchain, which let users bypass bitcoin's economic restrictions and create an indefinite number of bitcoins.[25][26] On 15 August, the vulnerability was exploited; over 184 billion bitcoins were generated in a transaction, and sent to two addresses on the network. Within hours, the transaction was spotted and erased from the transaction log after the bug was fixed and the network forked to an updated version of the bitcoin protocol.[27] This was the only major security flaw found and exploited in bitcoin's history.[25][26]

The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts.[155] In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about US$0.30 to US$32 before returning to US$2.[156] In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise,[157] reaching a high of US$266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around US$50.[158] On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of US$1,242.[159] In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under US$600.[160] During their time as bitcoin developers, Gavin Andresen[161] and Mike Hearn[162] warned that bubbles may occur.


The other reason is safety. Looking at 2009 alone, 32,489 blocks were mined; at the then-reward rate of 50 BTC per block, the total payout in 2009 was 1,624,500 BTC, which at today’s prices is over $900 million. One may conclude that only Satoshi and perhaps a few other people were mining through 2009, and that they possess a majority of that $900 million worth of BTC. Someone in possession of that much BTC could become a target of criminals, especially since bitcoins are less like stocks and more like cash, where the private keys needed to authorize spending could be printed out and literally kept under a mattress. While it's likely the inventor of Bitcoin would take precautions to make any extortion-induced transfers traceable, remaining anonymous is a good way for Satoshi to limit exposure.
Speculation drives numbers. Many Bitcoin users are holding onto their bitcoins in hopes of selling them off for an enormous profit one day. With news articles portraying Bitcoin millionaires as lucky kids who got in early, you can’t really blame them. For example, if you had spent your $5 latte money on 2,000 bitcoins one morning in 2010, they would be worth about $5.4 million today. Makes you really wish you’d managed your Starbucks budget better, doesn’t it?
On 22 March 2011 WeUseCoins published the first viral video[46] which has had over 6.4 million views. In September 2011 Vitalik Buterin co-founded Bitcoin Magazine. On 23 December 2011, Douglas Feigelson of BitBills filed a patent application for "Creating And Using Digital Currency" with the United States Patent and Trademark Office, an action which was contested based on prior art in June 2013.[47][48]
The simplest way to approach the model would be to look at the current worldwide value of all mediums of exchange and of all stores of value comparable to bitcoin, and calculate the value of bitcoin's projected percentage.  The predominant medium of exchange is government backed money, and for our model we will focus solely on them.  The money supply is often thought of as broken into different buckets, M0, M1, M2, and M3.  M0 refers to currency in circulation.  M1 is M0 plus demand deposits like checking accounts.  M2 is M1 plus savings accounts and small time deposits (known as certificates of deposit in the US).  M3 is M2 plus large time deposits and money market funds.  Since M0 and M1 are readily accessible for use in commerce, we will consider these two buckets as medium of exchange, whereas M2 and M3 will be considered as money being used as a store of value.
If the private key is lost, the bitcoin network will not recognize any other evidence of ownership;[30] the coins are then unusable, and effectively lost. For example, in 2013 one user claimed to have lost 7,500 bitcoins, worth $7.5 million at the time, when he accidentally discarded a hard drive containing his private key.[74] A backup of his key(s) would have prevented this.
According to The New York Times, libertarians and anarchists were attracted to the idea. Early bitcoin supporter Roger Ver said: "At first, almost everyone who got involved did so for philosophical reasons. We saw bitcoin as a great idea, as a way to separate money from the state."[119] The Economist describes bitcoin as "a techno-anarchist project to create an online version of cash, a way for people to transact without the possibility of interference from malicious governments or banks".[122]
Bitcoin's blockchain can be loaded with arbitrary data. In 2018 researchers from RWTH Aachen University and Goethe University identified 1,600 files added to the blockchain, 59 of which included links to unlawful images of child exploitation, politically sensitive content, or privacy violations. "Our analysis shows that certain content, eg, illegal pornography, can render the mere possession of a blockchain illegal."[229]
Network nodes can validate transactions, add them to their copy of the ledger, and then broadcast these ledger additions to other nodes. To achieve independent verification of the chain of ownership each network node stores its own copy of the blockchain.[65] About every 10 minutes, a new group of accepted transactions, called a block, is created, added to the blockchain, and quickly published to all nodes, without requiring central oversight. This allows bitcoin software to determine when a particular bitcoin was spent, which is needed to prevent double-spending. A conventional ledger records the transfers of actual bills or promissory notes that exist apart from it, but the blockchain is the only place that bitcoins can be said to exist in the form of unspent outputs of transactions.[3]:ch. 5
No one knows. Not conclusively, at any rate. Satoshi Nakamoto is the name associated with the person or group of people who released the original Bitcoin white paper in 2008 and worked on the original Bitcoin software that was released in 2009. The Bitcoin protocol requires users to enter a birthday upon signup, and we know that an individual named Satoshi Nakamoto registered and put down April 5 as a birth date. And that's about it.
In September 2015, the establishment of the peer-reviewed academic journal Ledger (ISSN 2379-5980) was announced. It covers studies of cryptocurrencies and related technologies, and is published by the University of Pittsburgh.[239] The journal encourages authors to digitally sign a file hash of submitted papers, which will then be timestamped into the bitcoin blockchain. Authors are also asked to include a personal bitcoin address in the first page of their papers.[240][241]
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