As mathematician George Box said, "All models are wrong, some are useful."  We have set out to construct a framework for pricing bitcoin but it is important to understand the variables.  From our thinking, it seems possible that bitcoin could eventually increase in price by orders of magnitude, but it all depends on bitcoin's level of adoption.  The most important question is "Will people use bitcoin?"
Computing power is often bundled together or "pooled" to reduce variance in miner income. Individual mining rigs often have to wait for long periods to confirm a block of transactions and receive payment. In a pool, all participating miners get paid every time a participating server solves a block. This payment depends on the amount of work an individual miner contributed to help find that block.[82]
On 18 March 2013, the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (or FinCEN), a bureau of the United States Department of the Treasury, issued a report regarding centralized and decentralized "virtual currencies" and their legal status within "money services business" (MSB) and Bank Secrecy Act regulations.[61][66] It classified digital currencies and other digital payment systems such as bitcoin as "virtual currencies" because they are not legal tender under any sovereign jurisdiction. FinCEN cleared American users of bitcoin of legal obligations[66] by saying, "A user of virtual currency is not an MSB under FinCEN's regulations and therefore is not subject to MSB registration, reporting, and recordkeeping regulations." However, it held that American entities who generate "virtual currency" such as bitcoins are money transmitters or MSBs if they sell their generated currency for national currency: "...a person that creates units of convertible virtual currency and sells those units to another person for real currency or its equivalent is engaged in transmission to another location and is a money transmitter." This specifically extends to "miners" of the bitcoin currency who may have to register as MSBs and abide by the legal requirements of being a money transmitter if they sell their generated bitcoins for national currency and are within the United States.[59] Since FinCEN issued this guidance, dozens of virtual currency exchangers and administrators have registered with FinCEN, and FinCEN is receiving an increasing number of suspicious activity reports (SARs) from these entities.[175] 

Prior to the release of bitcoin there were a number of digital cash technologies starting with the issuer based ecash protocols of David Chaum and Stefan Brands.[3][4][5] Adam Back developed hashcash, a proof-of-work scheme for spam control. The first proposals for distributed digital scarcity based cryptocurrencies were Wei Dai's b-money[6] and Nick Szabo's bit gold.[7][8] Hal Finney developed reusable proof of work (RPOW) using hashcash as its proof of work algorithm.[9]

One of the first supporters, adopters, contributor to bitcoin and receiver of the first bitcoin transaction was programmer Hal Finney. Finney downloaded the bitcoin software the day it was released, and received 10 bitcoins from Nakamoto in the world's first bitcoin transaction on 12 January 2009.[21][22] Other early supporters were Wei Dai, creator of bitcoin predecessor b-money, and Nick Szabo, creator of bitcoin predecessor bit gold.[12]
Bitcoin is in the very early stages of acceptance, and although it is already accepted as a means of payment by numerous merchants, it has yet to become more widely accepted and “mainstream.” This could change, however, as more and more users are attracted to cryptocurrencies for the various potential benefits they may provide. In fact, investors have been flocking to the currency in significant numbers, and some even feel that eventually Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could replace other traditional payment methods.
The very first transaction involving Bitcoin occurred between an early adopter and Nakamoto in January 2009. The first transaction in the real world is the notorious instance when a Bitcoin miner chose to buy pizza from Papa John’s. He famously spent 10,000 Bitcoins to buy two pizzas in 2010 in Florida. That transaction alone perfectly shows the dramatic change in value that Bitcoin has experienced over the years.

"Satoshi Nakamoto" is presumed to be a pseudonym for the person or people who designed the original bitcoin protocol in 2008 and launched the network in 2009. Nakamoto was responsible for creating the majority of the official bitcoin software and was active in making modifications and posting technical information on the bitcoin forum.[12] There has been much speculation as to the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto with suspects including Dai, Szabo, and Finney – and accompanying denials.[28][29] The possibility that Satoshi Nakamoto was a computer collective in the European financial sector has also been discussed.[30]
17-20 November 2017 $7,600-8,100 Briefly topped at USD $8004.59/BTC at 01:14:11 UTC before retreating from highs. At 05:35 UTC on 20 November 2017 it stood at USD$7,988.23/BTC according to CoinDesk.[165] This surge in bitcoin may be related to developments in the 2017 Zimbabwean coup d'état. The market reaction in one bitcoin exchange is alarming as 1 BTC topped nearly US$13,500, just shy of 2 times the value of the International market.[166][167]
As mathematician George Box said, "All models are wrong, some are useful."  We have set out to construct a framework for pricing bitcoin but it is important to understand the variables.  From our thinking, it seems possible that bitcoin could eventually increase in price by orders of magnitude, but it all depends on bitcoin's level of adoption.  The most important question is "Will people use bitcoin?"
Google Trends structures the chart to represent a relative search interest to the highest points in the chart. A value of 100 is the peak popularity for the term “Bitcoin” and a value of 50 means it was half as popular at that time. A score of 0 indicates that the term was less than 1% as popular as the peak. It’s amazing how the searches relating to Bitcoin have spiked in the past few years.
In December, 2013, Techcrunch published an interview with researcher Skye Grey who claimed textual analysis of published writings shows a link between Satoshi and bit-gold creator Nick Szabo. And perhaps most famously, in March 2014, Newsweek ran a cover article claiming that Satoshi is actually an individual named Satoshi Nakamoto – a 64-year-old Japanese-American engineer living in California. The list of suspects is long, and all the individuals deny being Satoshi.
Regulatory Risk: Bitcoins are a rival to government currency and may be used for black market transactions, money laundering, illegal activities or tax evasion. As a result, governments may seek to regulate, restrict or ban the use and sale of bitcoins, and some already have. Others are coming up with various rules. For example, in 2015, the New York State Department of Financial Services finalized regulations that would require companies dealing with the buy, sell, transfer or storage of bitcoins to record the identity of customers, have a compliance officer and maintain capital reserves. The transactions worth $10,000 or more will have to be recorded and reported.
The Bank for International Settlements summarized several criticisms of bitcoin in Chapter V of their 2018 annual report. The criticisms include the lack of stability in bitcoin's price, the high energy consumption, high and variable transactions costs, the poor security and fraud at cryptocurrency exchanges, vulnerability to debasement (from forking), and the influence of miners.[187][188][189] 

Security Risk: Bitcoin exchanges are entirely digital and, as with any virtual system, are at risk from hackers, malware and operational glitches. If a thief gains access to a Bitcoin owner's computer hard drive and steals his private encryption key, he could transfer the stolen Bitcoins to another account. (Users can prevent this only if bitcoins are stored on a computer which is not connected to the internet, or else by choosing to use a paper wallet – printing out the Bitcoin private keys and addresses, and not keeping them on a computer at all.) Hackers can also target Bitcoin exchanges, gaining access to thousands of accounts and digital wallets where bitcoins are stored. One especially notorious hacking incident took place in 2014, when Mt. Gox, a Bitcoin exchange in Japan, was forced to close down after millions of dollars worth of bitcoins were stolen.
In January 2012, bitcoin was featured as the main subject within a fictionalized trial on the CBS legal drama The Good Wife in the third-season episode "Bitcoin for Dummies". The host of CNBC's Mad Money, Jim Cramer, played himself in a courtroom scene where he testifies that he doesn't consider bitcoin a true currency, saying "There's no central bank to regulate it; it's digital and functions completely peer to peer".[49]
^ Jump up to: a b c d "Statement of Jennifer Shasky Calvery, Director Financial Crimes Enforcement Network United States Department of the Treasury Before the United States Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Subcommittee on National Security and International Trade and Finance Subcommittee on Economic Policy" (PDF). fincen.gov. Financial Crimes Enforcement Network. 19 November 2013. Archived (PDF) from the original on 9 October 2016. Retrieved 1 June 2014.
To be accepted by the rest of the network, a new block must contain a so-called proof-of-work (PoW).[64] The system used is based on Adam Back's 1997 anti-spam scheme, Hashcash.[5][79] The PoW requires miners to find a number called a nonce, such that when the block content is hashed along with the nonce, the result is numerically smaller than the network's difficulty target.[3]:ch. 8 This proof is easy for any node in the network to verify, but extremely time-consuming to generate, as for a secure cryptographic hash, miners must try many different nonce values (usually the sequence of tested values is the ascending natural numbers: 0, 1, 2, 3, ...[3]:ch. 8) before meeting the difficulty target.
Bitcoin mining saps energy, costly, uses more power and also the reward delays. For mining, run software, get your wallet ready and be the first to solve a cryptographic problem and you get your reward after the new blocks have been added to the blockchain.Mining is said to be successful when all the transactions are recorded in the blockchain and the new blocks are added to the blockchain.
Illiquidity. This is mostly moot due to Bitcoin’s $47 market cap but it still makes users sweat. It’s highly unlikely that Bitcoin’s price would plummet and you’d be unable to take action, but it’s still unsettling.  As more investors invest, however, illiquidity becomes a negligible risk, as there will likely always be a buyer for Bitcoins waiting.
Nobody owns the Bitcoin network much like no one owns the technology behind email or the Internet. Bitcoin transactions are verified by Bitcoin miners which has an entire industry and Bitcoin cloud mining options. While developers are improving the software they cannot force a change in the Bitcoin protocol because all users are free to choose what software and version they use.
One of Bitcoin’s most appealing features is its ruthless verification process, which greatly minimizes the risk of fraud. Since Bitcoin is decentralized, volunteers—referred to as “miners”—constantly verify and update the blockchain. Once a specific amount of transactions are verified, another block is added to the blockchain and business continues per usual.
Full clients verify transactions directly by downloading a full copy of the blockchain (over 150 GB As of January 2018).[90] They are the most secure and reliable way of using the network, as trust in external parties is not required. Full clients check the validity of mined blocks, preventing them from transacting on a chain that breaks or alters network rules.[91] Because of its size and complexity, downloading and verifying the entire blockchain is not suitable for all computing devices.

Though transaction fees are optional, miners can choose which transactions to process and prioritize those that pay higher fees.[67] Miners may choose transactions based on the fee paid relative to their storage size, not the absolute amount of money paid as a fee. These fees are generally measured in satoshis per byte (sat/b). The size of transactions is dependent on the number of inputs used to create the transaction, and the number of outputs.[3]:ch. 8


By 2017, Bitcoin dominance had plummeted from 95% to as low as 40% as a direct result of the usability problems. Fortunately, a large portion of the Bitcoin community, including developers, investors, users, and businesses, still believed in the original vision of Bitcoin -- a low fee, peer to peer electronic cash system that could be used by all the people of the world.
Bitcoin is a type of cryptocurrency: Balances are kept using public and private "keys," which are long strings of numbers and letters linked through the mathematical encryption algorithm that was used to create them. The public key (comparable to a bank account number) serves as the address which is published to the world and to which others may send bitcoins. The private key (comparable to an ATM PIN) is meant to be a guarded secret, and only used to authorize Bitcoin transmissions.
Because of bitcoin's decentralized nature and its trading on online exchanges located in many countries, regulation of bitcoin has been difficult. However, the use of bitcoin can be criminalized, and shutting down exchanges and the peer-to-peer economy in a given country would constitute a de facto ban.[164] The legal status of bitcoin varies substantially from country to country and is still undefined or changing in many of them. Regulations and bans that apply to bitcoin probably extend to similar cryptocurrency systems.[165]
Bitcoin's journey continued slowly at first, but it hit the mainstream in 2013 after the first of several hyperinflation incidents occurred in the currency. In late 2013, the cryptocurrency spike in value from around $100 per coin to $1,000 in just over a month, before halving in value over the next three or four months. Bitcoin would not hit $1,000 again until 2017.
In March the bitcoin transaction log called the blockchain temporarily split into two independent chains with differing rules on how transactions were accepted. For six hours two bitcoin networks operated at the same time, each with its own version of the transaction history. The core developers called for a temporary halt to transactions, sparking a sharp sell-off.[55] Normal operation was restored when the majority of the network downgraded to version 0.7 of the bitcoin software.[55] The Mt. Gox exchange briefly halted bitcoin deposits and the exchange rate briefly dipped by 23% to $37 as the event occurred[56][57] before recovering to previous level of approximately $48 in the following hours.[58] In the US, the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) established regulatory guidelines for "decentralized virtual currencies" such as bitcoin, classifying American bitcoin miners who sell their generated bitcoins as Money Service Businesses (or MSBs), that may be subject to registration and other legal obligations.[59][60][61]
On 19 June 2011, a security breach of the Mt. Gox bitcoin exchange caused the nominal price of a bitcoin to fraudulently drop to one cent on the Mt. Gox exchange, after a hacker used credentials from a Mt. Gox auditor's compromised computer illegally to transfer a large number of bitcoins to himself. They used the exchange's software to sell them all nominally, creating a massive "ask" order at any price. Within minutes, the price reverted to its correct user-traded value.[186][187][188][189][190][191] Accounts with the equivalent of more than US$8,750,000 were affected.[188]
To be accepted by the rest of the network, a new block must contain a so-called proof-of-work (PoW).[64] The system used is based on Adam Back's 1997 anti-spam scheme, Hashcash.[5][79] The PoW requires miners to find a number called a nonce, such that when the block content is hashed along with the nonce, the result is numerically smaller than the network's difficulty target.[3]:ch. 8 This proof is easy for any node in the network to verify, but extremely time-consuming to generate, as for a secure cryptographic hash, miners must try many different nonce values (usually the sequence of tested values is the ascending natural numbers: 0, 1, 2, 3, ...[3]:ch. 8) before meeting the difficulty target.
17-20 November 2017 $7,600-8,100 Briefly topped at USD $8004.59/BTC at 01:14:11 UTC before retreating from highs. At 05:35 UTC on 20 November 2017 it stood at USD$7,988.23/BTC according to CoinDesk.[165] This surge in bitcoin may be related to developments in the 2017 Zimbabwean coup d'état. The market reaction in one bitcoin exchange is alarming as 1 BTC topped nearly US$13,500, just shy of 2 times the value of the International market.[166][167]
Bitcoins can be accepted as a means of payment for products sold or services provided. If you have a brick and mortar store, just display a sign saying “Bitcoin Accepted Here” and many of your customers may well take you up on it; the transactions can be handled with the requisite hardware terminal or wallet address through QR codes and touch screen apps. An online business can easily accept bitcoins by just adding this payment option to the others it offers, like credit cards, PayPal, etc. Online payments will require a Bitcoin merchant tool (an external processor like Coinbase or BitPay). 
Though perhaps not useful for the proverbial “cup of coffee” today, bitcoin is regularly used to move hundreds of millions of dollars across borders, often much more quickly and cheaply than settling such transactions through the conventional financial system. Earlier this month, for instance, a crypto user sent $194 million worth of bitcoin for just $0.10.
Bitcoins can be accepted as a means of payment for products sold or services provided. If you have a brick and mortar store, just display a sign saying “Bitcoin Accepted Here” and many of your customers may well take you up on it; the transactions can be handled with the requisite hardware terminal or wallet address through QR codes and touch screen apps. An online business can easily accept bitcoins by just adding this payment option to the others it offers, like credit cards, PayPal, etc. Online payments will require a Bitcoin merchant tool (an external processor like Coinbase or BitPay). 
In late August 2012, an operation titled Bitcoin Savings and Trust was shut down by the owner, leaving around US$5.6 million in bitcoin-based debts; this led to allegations that the operation was a Ponzi scheme.[197][198][199][200] In September 2012, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission had reportedly started an investigation on the case.[201]
This is particularly problematic once you remember that all Bitcoin transactions are permanent and irreversible. It's like dealing with cash: Any transaction carried out with bitcoins can only be reversed if the person who has received them refunds them. There is no third party or a payment processor, as in the case of a debit or credit card – hence, no source of protection or appeal if there is a problem.
Bitcoin’s popularity has undeniably been its number one advantage over the numerous other cryptocurrencies. By gaining a large number of adopters and users, Bitcoin has achieved a network effect that attracts even more users. Users who would otherwise be more apprehensive investing in a relatively unknown and unproven digital currency are reassured by Bitcoin’s performance over time, its growing community, and the fact that people they know are adopting cryptos.
Bitcoin is the world’s first open-source, decentralized proof-of-work digital currency and platform powered by blockchain technology. Transactions on the network are peer-to-peer, cryptographically secure, and do not require an intermediary. Bitcoin was the first cryptocurrency to introduce the concept of non-tangible, programmable money that is stored on a public blockchain. The now-famous Satoshi Nakamoto released the Bitcoin whitepaper in 2008, referencing the financial crisis of that year. It discussed the implementation of a cashless, digital payment system to counter fallible fiat currency systems. By January 2009, the first Bitcoin was mined. Nakamoto publicly released his research to the cryptocurrency community soon thereafter. It remains the largest digital currency by market cap.
This is a rather simple long term model.  And perhaps the biggest question it hinges on is how much adoption will bitcoin achieve?  Coming up with a value for the current price of bitcoin would involve pricing in the risk of low adoption or failure of bitcoin as a currency, which could include being displaced by one or more other digital currencies.  Models often consider the velocity of money, frequently arguing that since bitcoin can support transfers that take less than an hour, the velocity of money in the future bitcoin ecosystem will be higher than the current average velocity of money.  Another view on this though would be that velocity of money is not restricted by today's payment rails in any significant way and that its main determinant is the need or willingness of people to transact.  Therefore, the projected velocity of money could be treated as roughly equal to its current value.

In the blockchain, bitcoins are registered to bitcoin addresses. Creating a bitcoin address requires nothing more than picking a random valid private key and computing the corresponding bitcoin address. This computation can be done in a split second. But the reverse, computing the private key of a given bitcoin address, is mathematically unfeasible. Users can tell others or make public a bitcoin address without compromising its corresponding private key. Moreover, the number of valid private keys is so vast that it is extremely unlikely someone will compute a key-pair that is already in use and has funds. The vast number of valid private keys makes it unfeasible that brute force could be used to compromise a private key. To be able to spend their bitcoins, the owner must know the corresponding private key and digitally sign the transaction. The network verifies the signature using the public key.[3]:ch. 5
Full clients verify transactions directly by downloading a full copy of the blockchain (over 150 GB As of January 2018).[90] They are the most secure and reliable way of using the network, as trust in external parties is not required. Full clients check the validity of mined blocks, preventing them from transacting on a chain that breaks or alters network rules.[91] Because of its size and complexity, downloading and verifying the entire blockchain is not suitable for all computing devices.
Third-party internet services called online wallets offer similar functionality but may be easier to use. In this case, credentials to access funds are stored with the online wallet provider rather than on the user's hardware.[93][94] As a result, the user must have complete trust in the wallet provider. A malicious provider or a breach in server security may cause entrusted bitcoins to be stolen. An example of such a security breach occurred with Mt. Gox in 2011.[95] This has led to the often-repeated meme "Not your keys, not your bitcoin".[96]
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been identified as economic bubbles by at least eight Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences laureates, including Robert Shiller,[191] Joseph Stiglitz,[192] and Richard Thaler.[193][13] Noted Keyensian economist Paul Krugman wrote in his New York Times column criticizing bitcoin, calling it a bubble and a fraud;[194] and professor Nouriel Roubini of New York University called bitcoin the "mother of all bubbles."[195] Central bankers, including former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan,[196] investors such as Warren Buffett,[197][198] and George Soros[199] have stated similar views, as have business executives such as Jamie Dimon and Jack Ma.[200]
While there is certainly the possibility of making short-term profits in Bitcoin, many market participants are viewing an investment in Bitcoin as a long-term play. If the cryptocurrency were to eventually become a favored form of global payment and remittance, there is no telling just how high prices could go. Some have even suggested that the price of Bitcoin could hit $50,000 in 2018 and eventually $1 million.
More recently, at a congressional hearing on Capitol Hill, global economist and New York University professor Nouriel Roubini said, "Crypto is the mother or father of all scams and bubbles." He called out "swindlers" who tapped into investors' fear of missing out and took them for a ride with "crappy assets that went into a bust and crash — in a matter of months — like you have not seen in any history of financial bubbles."
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