Regulatory Risk: Bitcoins are a rival to government currency and may be used for black market transactions, money laundering, illegal activities or tax evasion. As a result, governments may seek to regulate, restrict or ban the use and sale of bitcoins, and some already have. Others are coming up with various rules. For example, in 2015, the New York State Department of Financial Services finalized regulations that would require companies dealing with the buy, sell, transfer or storage of bitcoins to record the identity of customers, have a compliance officer and maintain capital reserves. The transactions worth $10,000 or more will have to be recorded and reported.
Yesterday, we saw a major downside move below the $6,350 support in bitcoin price against the US Dollar. The BTC/USD pair declined heavily and broke the $6,240 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average. It traded as low as $6,202 and later started a short term correction. The price moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent drop from the $6,433 high to $6,202 low.
After Bitcoin nearly reached $20,000, it was not able to maintain those figures. January did see a high of over $17,500 around the 7th, but this was short-lived and followed by a steady drop. By the end of January 2018, Bitcoin was at just over $10,000. By Feb. 5, it was under $7,000. It rallied again, getting over $11,000 in early March, but this was followed by a drop back below $7,000. The largest recent high for Bitcoin was in early May, when it was above $9,500. By late June, it was under $6,000. Following a rise to more than $8,000 in late July, Bitcoin has remained around $6,000 to $6,500, other than a brief spike up over $7,300 in September.
Our first assumption is that bitcoin will derive its value both from its use as a medium of exchange and as a store of value. As a footnote to this assumption, it should be stated that bitcoin's utility as a store of value is dependent on its utility as a medium of exchange. We base this in turn on the assumption that for something to be used as a store of value it needs to have some intrinsic value, and if bitcoin does not achieve success as a medium of exchange, it will have no practical utility and thus no intrinsic value and won't be appealing as a store of value.
Our second assumption is that the supply of bitcoin will approach 21 million as specified in the current protocol. To give some context, the current supply of bitcoin is around 17 million, the rate at which bitcoin is released decreases by half roughly every four years, and the supply should get past 19 million in the year 2022. The key part of this assumption is that the protocol will not be changed. Note that changing the protocol would require the concurrence of a majority of the computing power engaged in bitcoin mining. (Related: How Does Bitcoin Mining Work?)
The proof-of-work system, alongside the chaining of blocks, makes modifications of the blockchain extremely hard, as an attacker must modify all subsequent blocks in order for the modifications of one block to be accepted. As new blocks are mined all the time, the difficulty of modifying a block increases as time passes and the number of subsequent blocks (also called confirmations of the given block) increases.
In Charles Stross' 2013 science fiction novel, Neptune's Brood, the universal interstellar payment system is known as "bitcoin" and operates using cryptography. Stross later blogged that the reference was intentional, saying "I wrote Neptune's Brood in 2011. Bitcoin was obscure back then, and I figured had just enough name recognition to be a useful term for an interstellar currency: it'd clue people in that it was a networked digital currency."
In October 2013, the FBI seized roughly 26,000 BTC from website Silk Road during the arrest of alleged owner Ross William Ulbricht. Two companies, Robocoin and Bitcoiniacs launched the world's first bitcoin ATM on 29 October 2013 in Vancouver, BC, Canada, allowing clients to sell or purchase bitcoin currency at a downtown coffee shop. Chinese internet giant Baidu had allowed clients of website security services to pay with bitcoins.
An official investigation into bitcoin traders was reported in May 2018. The U.S. Justice Department launched an investigation into possible price manipulation, including the techniques of spoofing and wash trades. Traders in the U.S., the U.K, South Korea, and possibly other countries are being investigated. Brett Redfearn, head of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's Division of Trading and Markets, had identified several manipulation techniques of concern in March 2018.
In December, 2013, Techcrunch published an interview with researcher Skye Grey who claimed textual analysis of published writings shows a link between Satoshi and bit-gold creator Nick Szabo. And perhaps most famously, in March 2014, Newsweek ran a cover article claiming that Satoshi is actually an individual named Satoshi Nakamoto – a 64-year-old Japanese-American engineer living in California. The list of suspects is long, and all the individuals deny being Satoshi.
More recently, at a congressional hearing on Capitol Hill, global economist and New York University professor Nouriel Roubini said, "Crypto is the mother or father of all scams and bubbles." He called out "swindlers" who tapped into investors' fear of missing out and took them for a ride with "crappy assets that went into a bust and crash — in a matter of months — like you have not seen in any history of financial bubbles."