This is a rather simple long term model.  And perhaps the biggest question it hinges on is how much adoption will bitcoin achieve?  Coming up with a value for the current price of bitcoin would involve pricing in the risk of low adoption or failure of bitcoin as a currency, which could include being displaced by one or more other digital currencies.  Models often consider the velocity of money, frequently arguing that since bitcoin can support transfers that take less than an hour, the velocity of money in the future bitcoin ecosystem will be higher than the current average velocity of money.  Another view on this though would be that velocity of money is not restricted by today's payment rails in any significant way and that its main determinant is the need or willingness of people to transact.  Therefore, the projected velocity of money could be treated as roughly equal to its current value.
According to The New York Times, libertarians and anarchists were attracted to the idea. Early bitcoin supporter Roger Ver said: "At first, almost everyone who got involved did so for philosophical reasons. We saw bitcoin as a great idea, as a way to separate money from the state."[119] The Economist describes bitcoin as "a techno-anarchist project to create an online version of cash, a way for people to transact without the possibility of interference from malicious governments or banks".[122]
As mathematician George Box said, "All models are wrong, some are useful."  We have set out to construct a framework for pricing bitcoin but it is important to understand the variables.  From our thinking, it seems possible that bitcoin could eventually increase in price by orders of magnitude, but it all depends on bitcoin's level of adoption.  The most important question is "Will people use bitcoin?"
In 2017, the Bitcoin project and its community split in two. Perhaps the least controversial way to refer to each side is simply by their respective ticker symbols, BTC and BCH. Bitcoin Cash is usually represented by the BCH ticker symbol and is considered by its supporters to be the legitimate continuation of the Bitcoin project as peer-to-peer digital cash.
After Bitcoin nearly reached $20,000, it was not able to maintain those figures. January did see a high of over $17,500 around the 7th, but this was short-lived and followed by a steady drop. By the end of January 2018, Bitcoin was at just over $10,000. By Feb. 5, it was under $7,000. It rallied again, getting over $11,000 in early March, but this was followed by a drop back below $7,000. The largest recent high for Bitcoin was in early May, when it was above $9,500. By late June, it was under $6,000. Following a rise to more than $8,000 in late July, Bitcoin has remained around $6,000 to $6,500, other than a brief spike up over $7,300 in September.
To heighten financial privacy, a new bitcoin address can be generated for each transaction.[113] For example, hierarchical deterministic wallets generate pseudorandom "rolling addresses" for every transaction from a single seed, while only requiring a single passphrase to be remembered to recover all corresponding private keys.[114] Researchers at Stanford and Concordia universities have also shown that bitcoin exchanges and other entities can prove assets, liabilities, and solvency without revealing their addresses using zero-knowledge proofs.[115] "Bulletproofs," a version of Confidential Transactions proposed by Greg Maxwell, have been tested by Professor Dan Boneh of Stanford.[116] Other solutions such Merkelized Abstract Syntax Trees (MAST), pay-to-script-hash (P2SH) with MERKLE-BRANCH-VERIFY, and "Tail Call Execution Semantics", have also been proposed to support private smart contracts.
Though transaction fees are optional, miners can choose which transactions to process and prioritize those that pay higher fees.[67] Miners may choose transactions based on the fee paid relative to their storage size, not the absolute amount of money paid as a fee. These fees are generally measured in satoshis per byte (sat/b). The size of transactions is dependent on the number of inputs used to create the transaction, and the number of outputs.[3]:ch. 8
Computing power is often bundled together or "pooled" to reduce variance in miner income. Individual mining rigs often have to wait for long periods to confirm a block of transactions and receive payment. In a pool, all participating miners get paid every time a participating server solves a block. This payment depends on the amount of work an individual miner contributed to help find that block.[82]

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Regulatory Risk: Bitcoins are a rival to government currency and may be used for black market transactions, money laundering, illegal activities or tax evasion. As a result, governments may seek to regulate, restrict or ban the use and sale of bitcoins, and some already have. Others are coming up with various rules. For example, in 2015, the New York State Department of Financial Services finalized regulations that would require companies dealing with the buy, sell, transfer or storage of bitcoins to record the identity of customers, have a compliance officer and maintain capital reserves. The transactions worth $10,000 or more will have to be recorded and reported.
A fork referring to a blockchain is defined variously as a blockchain split into two paths forward, or as a change of protocol rules. Accidental forks on the bitcoin network regularly occur as part of the mining process. They happen when two miners find a block at a similar point in time. As a result, the network briefly forks. This fork is subsequently resolved by the software which automatically chooses the longest chain, thereby orphaning the extra blocks added to the shorter chain (that were dropped by the longer chain).[171]

Our second assumption is that the supply of bitcoin will approach 21 million as specified in the current protocol.  To give some context, the current supply of bitcoin is around 17 million, the rate at which bitcoin is released decreases by half roughly every four years, and the supply should get past 19 million in the year 2022.  The key part of this assumption is that the protocol will not be changed.  Note that changing the protocol would require the concurrence of a majority of the computing power engaged in bitcoin mining. (Related: How Does Bitcoin Mining Work?)
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been identified as economic bubbles by at least eight Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences laureates, including Robert Shiller,[191] Joseph Stiglitz,[192] and Richard Thaler.[193][13] Noted Keyensian economist Paul Krugman wrote in his New York Times column criticizing bitcoin, calling it a bubble and a fraud;[194] and professor Nouriel Roubini of New York University called bitcoin the "mother of all bubbles."[195] Central bankers, including former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan,[196] investors such as Warren Buffett,[197][198] and George Soros[199] have stated similar views, as have business executives such as Jamie Dimon and Jack Ma.[200]
Press Contacts: San Francisco, CA, Kerryn Lloyd, [email protected] San Francisco, CA – August 28, 2018 –The Bitcoin Foundation has received a commitment of $200,000 for its 2018/2019 plan - $100,000 from Brock Pierce, a venture capitalist, philanthropist, serial entrepreneur and Chairman of the Bitcoin Foundation and a further $100,000 commitment [...]
Bitcoin was the first decentralized digital currency; an online peer-to-peer payment system, without the need for third-party intermediaries such as banks. It was first released in 2008 and has since grown to be the largest cryptocurrency when measured by market cap. Bitcoins are not issued like traditional currency, they are digital and “mined” by powerful servers over time. It was designed to have a fixed supply of 21 million coins.
The very first transaction involving Bitcoin occurred between an early adopter and Nakamoto in January 2009. The first transaction in the real world is the notorious instance when a Bitcoin miner chose to buy pizza from Papa John’s. He famously spent 10,000 Bitcoins to buy two pizzas in 2010 in Florida. That transaction alone perfectly shows the dramatic change in value that Bitcoin has experienced over the years.
In October 2013, the FBI seized roughly 26,000 BTC from website Silk Road during the arrest of alleged owner Ross William Ulbricht.[78][79][80] Two companies, Robocoin and Bitcoiniacs launched the world's first bitcoin ATM on 29 October 2013 in Vancouver, BC, Canada, allowing clients to sell or purchase bitcoin currency at a downtown coffee shop.[81][82][83] Chinese internet giant Baidu had allowed clients of website security services to pay with bitcoins.[84]
Though transaction fees are optional, miners can choose which transactions to process and prioritize those that pay higher fees.[67] Miners may choose transactions based on the fee paid relative to their storage size, not the absolute amount of money paid as a fee. These fees are generally measured in satoshis per byte (sat/b). The size of transactions is dependent on the number of inputs used to create the transaction, and the number of outputs.[3]:ch. 8
In 2017, the Bitcoin project and its community split in two. Perhaps the least controversial way to refer to each side is simply by their respective ticker symbols, BTC and BCH. Bitcoin Cash is usually represented by the BCH ticker symbol and is considered by its supporters to be the legitimate continuation of the Bitcoin project as peer-to-peer digital cash.
In January 2015 Coinbase raised 75 million USD as part of a Series C funding round, smashing the previous record for a bitcoin company.[109] Less than one year after the collapse of Mt. Gox, United Kingdom-based exchange Bitstamp announced that their exchange would be taken offline while they investigate a hack which resulted in about 19,000 bitcoins (equivalent to roughly US$5 million at that time) being stolen from their hot wallet.[110] The exchange remained offline for several days amid speculation that customers had lost their funds. Bitstamp resumed trading on 9 January after increasing security measures and assuring customers that their account balances would not be impacted.[111]
Because of bitcoin's decentralized nature and its trading on online exchanges located in many countries, regulation of bitcoin has been difficult. However, the use of bitcoin can be criminalized, and shutting down exchanges and the peer-to-peer economy in a given country would constitute a de facto ban.[164] The legal status of bitcoin varies substantially from country to country and is still undefined or changing in many of them. Regulations and bans that apply to bitcoin probably extend to similar cryptocurrency systems.[165]
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