The simplest way to approach the model would be to look at the current worldwide value of all mediums of exchange and of all stores of value comparable to bitcoin, and calculate the value of bitcoin's projected percentage.  The predominant medium of exchange is government backed money, and for our model we will focus solely on them.  The money supply is often thought of as broken into different buckets, M0, M1, M2, and M3.  M0 refers to currency in circulation.  M1 is M0 plus demand deposits like checking accounts.  M2 is M1 plus savings accounts and small time deposits (known as certificates of deposit in the US).  M3 is M2 plus large time deposits and money market funds.  Since M0 and M1 are readily accessible for use in commerce, we will consider these two buckets as medium of exchange, whereas M2 and M3 will be considered as money being used as a store of value.
The simplest way to approach the model would be to look at the current worldwide value of all mediums of exchange and of all stores of value comparable to bitcoin, and calculate the value of bitcoin's projected percentage.  The predominant medium of exchange is government backed money, and for our model we will focus solely on them.  The money supply is often thought of as broken into different buckets, M0, M1, M2, and M3.  M0 refers to currency in circulation.  M1 is M0 plus demand deposits like checking accounts.  M2 is M1 plus savings accounts and small time deposits (known as certificates of deposit in the US).  M3 is M2 plus large time deposits and money market funds.  Since M0 and M1 are readily accessible for use in commerce, we will consider these two buckets as medium of exchange, whereas M2 and M3 will be considered as money being used as a store of value.

In the early days, Nakamoto is estimated to have mined 1 million bitcoins.[23] Before disappearing from any involvement in bitcoin, Nakamoto in a sense handed over the reins to developer Gavin Andresen, who then became the bitcoin lead developer at the Bitcoin Foundation, the 'anarchic' bitcoin community's closest thing to an official public face.[24]


Josiah is an assistant editor at CCN. A former ancient and medieval literature teacher, he has been reporting on cryptocurrency since 2014. He lives in rural North Carolina with his wife and children. He holds investment positions in bitcoin and other large-cap cryptocurrencies. Follow him on Twitter @Y3llowb1ackbird or email him directly at josiah.wilmoth(at)ccn.com.
Bitcoin mining saps energy, costly, uses more power and also the reward delays. For mining, run software, get your wallet ready and be the first to solve a cryptographic problem and you get your reward after the new blocks have been added to the blockchain.Mining is said to be successful when all the transactions are recorded in the blockchain and the new blocks are added to the blockchain.

A fork referring to a blockchain is defined variously as a blockchain split into two paths forward, or as a change of protocol rules. Accidental forks on the bitcoin network regularly occur as part of the mining process. They happen when two miners find a block at a similar point in time. As a result, the network briefly forks. This fork is subsequently resolved by the software which automatically chooses the longest chain, thereby orphaning the extra blocks added to the shorter chain (that were dropped by the longer chain).[171]
In July 2013, a project began in Kenya linking bitcoin with M-Pesa, a popular mobile payments system, in an experiment designed to spur innovative payments in Africa.[71] During the same month the Foreign Exchange Administration and Policy Department in Thailand stated that bitcoin lacks any legal framework and would therefore be illegal, which effectively banned trading on bitcoin exchanges in the country.[72][73] According to Vitalik Buterin, a writer for Bitcoin Magazine, "bitcoin's fate in Thailand may give the electronic currency more credibility in some circles", but he was concerned it didn't bode well for bitcoin in China.[74]
To be accepted by the rest of the network, a new block must contain a so-called proof-of-work (PoW).[64] The system used is based on Adam Back's 1997 anti-spam scheme, Hashcash.[5][79] The PoW requires miners to find a number called a nonce, such that when the block content is hashed along with the nonce, the result is numerically smaller than the network's difficulty target.[3]:ch. 8 This proof is easy for any node in the network to verify, but extremely time-consuming to generate, as for a secure cryptographic hash, miners must try many different nonce values (usually the sequence of tested values is the ascending natural numbers: 0, 1, 2, 3, ...[3]:ch. 8) before meeting the difficulty target.
Bitcoin's journey continued slowly at first, but it hit the mainstream in 2013 after the first of several hyperinflation incidents occurred in the currency. In late 2013, the cryptocurrency spike in value from around $100 per coin to $1,000 in just over a month, before halving in value over the next three or four months. Bitcoin would not hit $1,000 again until 2017.
“So if you look at a $100 billion market cap today, now last week it might have been more like 200, so it’s actually a buying opportunity, we think that there’s a potential appreciation of 30 to 40 times because you look at the gold market today, it’s a $7 trillion market. And so a lot of people are starting to se that, they recognize the store of value properties.”
To heighten financial privacy, a new bitcoin address can be generated for each transaction.[113] For example, hierarchical deterministic wallets generate pseudorandom "rolling addresses" for every transaction from a single seed, while only requiring a single passphrase to be remembered to recover all corresponding private keys.[114] Researchers at Stanford and Concordia universities have also shown that bitcoin exchanges and other entities can prove assets, liabilities, and solvency without revealing their addresses using zero-knowledge proofs.[115] "Bulletproofs," a version of Confidential Transactions proposed by Greg Maxwell, have been tested by Professor Dan Boneh of Stanford.[116] Other solutions such Merkelized Abstract Syntax Trees (MAST), pay-to-script-hash (P2SH) with MERKLE-BRANCH-VERIFY, and "Tail Call Execution Semantics", have also been proposed to support private smart contracts.
Bitcoin may react differently to inflation/deflation: Bitcoin differs significantly from fiat currencies, due to the fact that there is a limited number of bitcoins to be mined. Paper money, on the other hand, can be created at will out of thin air by central banks. Due to its limited supply, Bitcoin may potentially hold its value better than paper money, which can technically have an unlimited supply.

Bitcoin has become more widely traded as of 2017, and both short term traders and long-term investors are looking to participate in this exciting market. The price of bitcoin fluctuates on a daily basis, and can see some significant price volatility. Prices can be affected by numerous influences. Some of the possible drivers of price include: further acceptance, more exchanges opening, regulations, weakening paper currency values, inflation and more.
Bitcoin mining operations take a lot of effort and power, and the sheer amount of competition makes it difficult for newcomers to enter the race and profit. A new miner would not only need to have adequate computing power and the knowledge to use it to outcompete the competition, but would also need the extensive amount of capital necessary to fund the operations.
Bitcoin is a new currency that was created in 2009 by an unknown person using the alias Satoshi Nakamoto. Transactions are made with no middle men – meaning, no banks! Bitcoin can be used to book hotels on Expedia, shop for furniture on Overstock and buy Xbox games. But much of the hype is about getting rich by trading it. The price of bitcoin skyrocketed into the thousands in 2017.
"Satoshi Nakamoto" is presumed to be a pseudonym for the person or people who designed the original bitcoin protocol in 2008 and launched the network in 2009. Nakamoto was responsible for creating the majority of the official bitcoin software and was active in making modifications and posting technical information on the bitcoin forum.[12] There has been much speculation as to the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto with suspects including Dai, Szabo, and Finney – and accompanying denials.[28][29] The possibility that Satoshi Nakamoto was a computer collective in the European financial sector has also been discussed.[30]
While there is certainly the possibility of making short-term profits in Bitcoin, many market participants are viewing an investment in Bitcoin as a long-term play. If the cryptocurrency were to eventually become a favored form of global payment and remittance, there is no telling just how high prices could go. Some have even suggested that the price of Bitcoin could hit $50,000 in 2018 and eventually $1 million.

This is a rather simple long term model.  And perhaps the biggest question it hinges on is how much adoption will bitcoin achieve?  Coming up with a value for the current price of bitcoin would involve pricing in the risk of low adoption or failure of bitcoin as a currency, which could include being displaced by one or more other digital currencies.  Models often consider the velocity of money, frequently arguing that since bitcoin can support transfers that take less than an hour, the velocity of money in the future bitcoin ecosystem will be higher than the current average velocity of money.  Another view on this though would be that velocity of money is not restricted by today's payment rails in any significant way and that its main determinant is the need or willingness of people to transact.  Therefore, the projected velocity of money could be treated as roughly equal to its current value.


In June 2013, Bitcoin Foundation board member Jon Matonis wrote in Forbes that he received a warning letter from the California Department of Financial Institutions accusing the foundation of unlicensed money transmission. Matonis denied that the foundation is engaged in money transmission and said he viewed the case as "an opportunity to educate state regulators."[182]
In January 2015 Coinbase raised 75 million USD as part of a Series C funding round, smashing the previous record for a bitcoin company.[109] Less than one year after the collapse of Mt. Gox, United Kingdom-based exchange Bitstamp announced that their exchange would be taken offline while they investigate a hack which resulted in about 19,000 bitcoins (equivalent to roughly US$5 million at that time) being stolen from their hot wallet.[110] The exchange remained offline for several days amid speculation that customers had lost their funds. Bitstamp resumed trading on 9 January after increasing security measures and assuring customers that their account balances would not be impacted.[111]
Prior to the release of bitcoin there were a number of digital cash technologies starting with the issuer based ecash protocols of David Chaum and Stefan Brands.[3][4][5] Adam Back developed hashcash, a proof-of-work scheme for spam control. The first proposals for distributed digital scarcity based cryptocurrencies were Wei Dai's b-money[6] and Nick Szabo's bit gold.[7][8] Hal Finney developed reusable proof of work (RPOW) using hashcash as its proof of work algorithm.[9]
The Bank for International Settlements summarized several criticisms of bitcoin in Chapter V of their 2018 annual report. The criticisms include the lack of stability in bitcoin's price, the high energy consumption, high and variable transactions costs, the poor security and fraud at cryptocurrency exchanges, vulnerability to debasement (from forking), and the influence of miners.[187][188][189]
If fewer people begin to accept Bitcoin as a currency, these digital units may lose value and could become worthless. There is already plenty of competition, and though Bitcoin has a huge lead over the other 100-odd digital currencies that have sprung up, thanks to its brand recognition and venture capital money, a technological break-through in the form of a better virtual coin is always a threat.
Prior to the release of bitcoin there were a number of digital cash technologies starting with the issuer based ecash protocols of David Chaum and Stefan Brands.[3][4][5] Adam Back developed hashcash, a proof-of-work scheme for spam control. The first proposals for distributed digital scarcity based cryptocurrencies were Wei Dai's b-money[6] and Nick Szabo's bit gold.[7][8] Hal Finney developed reusable proof of work (RPOW) using hashcash as its proof of work algorithm.[9]
Bitcoin is a digital asset designed to work in peer-to-peer transactions as a currency.[5][128] Bitcoins have three qualities useful in a currency, according to The Economist in January 2015: they are "hard to earn, limited in supply and easy to verify".[129] However, as of 2015 bitcoin functions more as a payment processor than as a currency.[130][30]

It's impossible to say how much bitcoin has increased in price single its earliest incarnation, because its value back then was in the fractions of cents. A conservative estimate, based on bitcoin's current price being around $6,300 per coin, and its early price being less than $0.01, would see bitcoin's value increasing more than 1 million fold in the last decade.
Bitcoin may react differently to inflation/deflation: Bitcoin differs significantly from fiat currencies, due to the fact that there is a limited number of bitcoins to be mined. Paper money, on the other hand, can be created at will out of thin air by central banks. Due to its limited supply, Bitcoin may potentially hold its value better than paper money, which can technically have an unlimited supply.
The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts.[155] In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about US$0.30 to US$32 before returning to US$2.[156] In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise,[157] reaching a high of US$266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around US$50.[158] On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of US$1,242.[159] In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under US$600.[160] During their time as bitcoin developers, Gavin Andresen[161] and Mike Hearn[162] warned that bubbles may occur.

In 2013 and 2014, the European Banking Authority[144] and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), a United States self-regulatory organization,[145] warned that investing in bitcoins carries significant risks. Forbes named bitcoin the best investment of 2013.[146] In 2014, Bloomberg named bitcoin one of its worst investments of the year.[147] In 2015, bitcoin topped Bloomberg's currency tables.[148]
Unfortunately, these new highs for Bitcoin were so far from the past figures that the price was very volatile. The volatility was fueled by rumors of poor security on Mt. Gox exchange, which was part of about 70 percent of Bitcoin transactions of the time. This was likely a contributing factor in the drop of Bitcoin’s price from $1,230 on Dec. 4, 2013, to $750 by Dec. 7.

Computing power is often bundled together or "pooled" to reduce variance in miner income. Individual mining rigs often have to wait for long periods to confirm a block of transactions and receive payment. In a pool, all participating miners get paid every time a participating server solves a block. This payment depends on the amount of work an individual miner contributed to help find that block.[82]


Nakamoto is estimated to have mined one million bitcoins[26] before disappearing in 2010, when he handed the network alert key and control of the code repository over to Gavin Andresen. Andresen later became lead developer at the Bitcoin Foundation.[27][28] Andresen then sought to decentralize control. This left opportunity for controversy to develop over the future development path of bitcoin.[29][28]

It’s decentralized and brings power back to the people. Launched just a year after the 2008 financial crises, Bitcoin has attracted many people who see the current financial system as unsustainable. This factor has won the hearts of those who view politicians and government with suspicion. It’s no surprise there is a huge community of ideologists actively building, buying, and working in the cryptocurrency world.


Third-party internet services called online wallets offer similar functionality but may be easier to use. In this case, credentials to access funds are stored with the online wallet provider rather than on the user's hardware.[93][94] As a result, the user must have complete trust in the wallet provider. A malicious provider or a breach in server security may cause entrusted bitcoins to be stolen. An example of such a security breach occurred with Mt. Gox in 2011.[95] This has led to the often-repeated meme "Not your keys, not your bitcoin".[96]
Recall that unique addresses are a proxy for the number of users, because they indicate how many non-zero Bitcoin addresses are in use. This metric has its strengths and weaknesses, which I wrote about here. Also, I have reviewed several other pricing methods which attempt to do the same thing using Metcalfe's Law. You can find those here and here.
Bitcoin continued to decline during early 2018, before eventually stabilizing at around $7,000 per coin. It has remained in the $6,000 to $7,000 range since June, and the volatility that characterised the market in 2017 and early 2018 has all but evaporated. On its 10-year anniversary, bitcoin is trading at $6,305 per coin, according to Markets Insider.

Bitcoin has been criticized for the amount of electricity consumed by mining. As of 2015, The Economist estimated that even if all miners used modern facilities, the combined electricity consumption would be 166.7 megawatts (1.46 terawatt-hours per year).[129] At the end of 2017, the global bitcoin mining activity was estimated to consume between one and four gigawatts of electricity.[202] Politico noted that the even high-end estimates of bitcoin's total consumption levels amount to only about 6% of the total power consumed by the global banking sector, and even if bitcoin's consumption levels increased 100 fold from today's levels, bitcoin's consumption would still only amount to about 2% of global power consumption.[203]


Transactions are verified by network nodes through cryptography and recorded in a public distributed ledger called a blockchain. Bitcoin was invented by an unknown person or group of people using the name Satoshi Nakamoto[9] and released as open-source software in 2009.[10] Bitcoins are created as a reward for a process known as mining. They can be exchanged for other currencies,[11] products, and services. Research produced by the University of Cambridge estimates that in 2017, there were 2.9 to 5.8 million unique users using a cryptocurrency wallet, most of them using bitcoin.[12]
The unit of account of the bitcoin system is a bitcoin. Ticker symbols used to represent bitcoin are BTC[b] and XBT.[c] Its Unicode character is ₿.[72]:2 Small amounts of bitcoin used as alternative units are millibitcoin (mBTC), and satoshi (sat). Named in homage to bitcoin's creator, a satoshi is the smallest amount within bitcoin representing 0.00000001 bitcoins, one hundred millionth of a bitcoin.[2] A millibitcoin equals 0.001 bitcoins, one thousandth of a bitcoin or 100,000 satoshis.[73]

The bitcoin-ml mailing list is a good venue for making proposals for changes that require coordination across development teams. Workgroups have been set up to assist developers to coordinate and seek peer-review. For those wishing to implement changes to the Bitcoin Cash protocol, it is recommended to seek early peer-review and engage collaboratively with other developers through the workgroups.
On 19 June 2011, a security breach of the Mt. Gox bitcoin exchange caused the nominal price of a bitcoin to fraudulently drop to one cent on the Mt. Gox exchange, after a hacker used credentials from a Mt. Gox auditor's compromised computer illegally to transfer a large number of bitcoins to himself. They used the exchange's software to sell them all nominally, creating a massive "ask" order at any price. Within minutes, the price reverted to its correct user-traded value.[186][187][188][189][190][191] Accounts with the equivalent of more than US$8,750,000 were affected.[188]
After Bitcoin nearly reached $20,000, it was not able to maintain those figures. January did see a high of over $17,500 around the 7th, but this was short-lived and followed by a steady drop. By the end of January 2018, Bitcoin was at just over $10,000. By Feb. 5, it was under $7,000. It rallied again, getting over $11,000 in early March, but this was followed by a drop back below $7,000. The largest recent high for Bitcoin was in early May, when it was above $9,500. By late June, it was under $6,000. Following a rise to more than $8,000 in late July, Bitcoin has remained around $6,000 to $6,500, other than a brief spike up over $7,300 in September.
Bitcoin prices saw tremendous activity during 2017, rising several thousand percent over the year. The market has seen some volatility, although many of the dips seen in the cryptocurrency have thus far proven to be good buying opportunities. This trend may or may not continue, but given the outlook for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, the trend could potentially remain higher for a long time to come.
It's impossible to say how much bitcoin has increased in price single its earliest incarnation, because its value back then was in the fractions of cents. A conservative estimate, based on bitcoin's current price being around $6,300 per coin, and its early price being less than $0.01, would see bitcoin's value increasing more than 1 million fold in the last decade.

By 2017, Bitcoin dominance had plummeted from 95% to as low as 40% as a direct result of the usability problems. Fortunately, a large portion of the Bitcoin community, including developers, investors, users, and businesses, still believed in the original vision of Bitcoin -- a low fee, peer to peer electronic cash system that could be used by all the people of the world.


In September 2015, the establishment of the peer-reviewed academic journal Ledger (ISSN 2379-5980) was announced. It covers studies of cryptocurrencies and related technologies, and is published by the University of Pittsburgh.[239] The journal encourages authors to digitally sign a file hash of submitted papers, which will then be timestamped into the bitcoin blockchain. Authors are also asked to include a personal bitcoin address in the first page of their papers.[240][241]
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